Stephen Schumacher implies in, “Lockdowns weren’t needed in the past,” that deaths from COVID-19 have been dropping in the last 11 weeks. 

This is false. Wikipedia collects data from state health departments. New deaths in the USA from COVID-19 in the last four weeks starting
July 3 are: 4,154; 5,013; 6,155; and 7,763 for the week ending July 31. Deaths are increasing.

Comparing COVID-19 to flu is fallacious. 

We can make flu vaccines but not COVID-19 vaccines. 

Maurice Hillman had a vaccine ready by the time the Asian flu hit the USA. 

The vaccine for the Hong Kong flu became available four months after the virus was isolated.

Unlike the flu, COVID-19 has not dropped with warmer weather nor do we know all the damage COVID-19 can cause nor how to mitigate it. Recent evidence indicates long-term damage to the lungs and heart can occur even in mild cases. There is no evidence that immunity that is acquired from catching COVID-19 is long lasting. It is unlikely for a vaccine to be widely available until 2021. If it is available, the immunity it imparts may fade over time. Talk of herd immunity is spurious speculation. 

Nobody knows the effective reproduction number for COVID-19. It is difficult to calculate this number for any disease, more so for COVID-19.

If you are driving at 90 mph, your mother or a guest might say “Please slow down.” If you are polite, you will slow down even if you think 90 mph is perfectly safe. 

For age and other reasons I feel particularly vulnerable to COVID-19. If you are around me, “Please wear a mask.” Better yet, always wear a mask (and pants) in public spaces. Periodic lockdowns may continue to be necessary.

Otto Smith
PORT TOWNSEND