‘Flattening the curve’: why social distancing is vital

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Both Jefferson County and the City of Port Townsend declared a state of emergency March 16 as the county has now seen its fourth confirmed case of the novel coronavirus known as COVID-19.

According to Jefferson County Public Health Officer Tom Locke, all four positive tests have been investigated and determined to be “out-of-county exposures,” meaning the individuals were not exposed to the virus in Jefferson County.

But these cases could indicate the beginning of community transmission within the county, he said.

“We think we are starting to see evidence of transmission from one of these Seattle-exposed cases to other people in Jefferson County,” Locke said in a briefing Monday. “That’s exactly what we expect. Given the lags in testing time, we don’t have that confirmed.”

Jefferson County Public Health has identified everyone who was in contact with the three infected individuals and they have been put in quarantine—staying home from work and having their vitals monitored to see if they show signs of sickness within the next 14 days. The infected individuals who are in isolation, he said.

The most recent case, confirmed March 17, is a male in his 60’s. Jefferson County Public Health has notified all people identified as having been in close contact with the affected individual during the period of possible transmission. The individual had possible out-of-county exposure to the virus.

A state of emergency declaration allows the county and city to be eligible for funding assistance while businesses, organizations and individuals are affected by the virus.

City of Port Townsend officials urged citizens Monday night at city council to take precautionary measures issued by the state and other agencies seriously as they continue to weather this health, and now economic, crisis.

“There are some big questions here that will require us to work together more deeply than we may ever have,” City Manager John Mauro said.

Keppie Keplinger, deputy director of the county’s Department of Emergency Management, said individuals and businesses should document all unusual costs and expenses during this time.

On March 16, Gov. Jay Inslee issued a statement announcing the statewide closure of restaurants, bars and events with gatherings of 50 people or more.

“I know there will be significant economic impacts to all our communities. But every hour counts as we bend the curve of infection,” Inslee said. “We have and will continue to take steps to mitigate those challenges.”

On March 14, Inslee announced that all public and private schools will be closed for the next six weeks.

SOCIAL DISTANCING

While these measures might seem premature for Jefferson County—where there is no proof yet of community spread of the disease—Locke said the timing is just right.

“The social distancing that we’re doing is having an effect, but it’s not enough,” he said. “We need to get more serious about slowing it down. The reason for that is medical surge.”

This is where the term “flattening the curve” comes into play. Health officials are trying to prolong the spread of the virus, so the peak of the virus’ spread does not overwhelm medical services.

According to Locke, 80% of people infected will have mild or unapparent illness, which is one reason it can spread so fast. There are 20% of people who will be ill enough to be bed-ridden, and a smaller percentage are going to need hospital care. If all of those people get sick at once, it could overwhelm local capacity to provide services.

“We have limited hospital and healthcare capacity to deal with that surge,” Locke said. “We have to slow down the spread so it matches up with the capacity of the medical care system to deal with the sickest of the sick. We don’t want to be in the situation that Northern Italy is.”

Locke said Jefferson County is more prepared to deal with the virus than King County was when the virus first appeared several weeks ago. Testing is occurring through Jefferson Healthcare’s COVID-19 hotline. Those who are experiencing signs of a respiratory illness, such as coughing and shortness of breath, can call 360-344-3094 and a nurse will evaluate the symptoms and make an appointment for the individual to come to the hospital’s special clinic where they will be tested.

Locke said testing is more available than it has been in the past few weeks, but that it is still slow.

“It has been very delayed,” he said. “It’s still not as available as it needs to be.”

The hospital has the ability to take nose swabs and send samples to the state and the University of Washington labs. Results come back to the county within 24 hours.

But health professionals are also dealing with a shortness of supplies, including swabs and the viral transport liquid. The country as a whole is also dealing with a shortage of personal protective equipment, such as masks and gowns.

“We don’t have an adequate supply,” Locke said. “We need to conserve what we have.”

Locke said another problem the country faces is dysfunctional leadership at a national level.

“We have one side of the partisan line that is anti-government, anti-science and wants to diminish the seriousness of this,” he said.

But he said Jefferson County is taking guidance from the state government and the World Health Organization.

“We are extremely well organized in this county,” he said. “This is not a time for people to panic by any means. Epidemics like this are part of human history.”

EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS

While the Department of Public Health is the lead agency organizing Jefferson County’s response to COVID-19, the Department of Emergency Management is offering support services.

Right now, the department is determining where individuals experiencing homelessness can go if they need to be quarantined or in isolation.

“We are actively looking for the right places to set up as care spaces for those individuals,” Keplinger said.

“Nobody knows how long this is going to last,” she said. “We are continuing to look at how to organize food delivery, securing a place for people who don’t have a place to live and trying to get information out to the community.”

The department is also able to help individuals get connected with their Neighborhood Preparedness Groups, or “NPREPs.”

There are currently more than 100 neighborhood organizations in Jefferson County that can look out for one another during times of emergency.

“NPREP is doing what they came into existence to do,” Keplinger said. “They are looking after their families and their neighbors and making sure they are OK.”

To learn if you live in a neighborhood that has a preparedness group, contact NPREP@L2020.org or the Department of Emergency Management.

The department also plans to coordinate volunteers, should other departments, such as public health, need them.

“We will be looking for volunteers to help agencies and put together a process on how to do that,” Keplinger said.

They will likely need volunteers who have specialized skills such as medical training, but also those who can do basic support tasks such as making copies, answering phones or bookkeeping.

To stay updated on if your volunteer service is needed, check the Department of Emergency Management website regularly, at www.co.jefferson.wa.us/950/Dept-of-Emergency-Management.