‘Flattening the curve:’ why distancing is vital

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Jefferson County has now seen its third confirmed case of the novel coronavirus known as COVID-19, although there is not yet evidence of community-spread of the disease. 

According to Jefferson County Public Health Officer Tom Locke, all three positive tests have been investigated and determined to be “out-of-county exposures,” meaning the individuals were not exposed to the virus in Jefferson County.

But these cases could indicate the beginning of community transmission within the county, he said.

“We think we are starting to see evidence of transmission from one of these Seattle-exposed cases to other people in Jefferson County,” Locke said. “That’s exactly what we expect. Given the lags in testing time, we don’t have that confirmed.” 

Jefferson County Public Health has identified all individuals who were in contact with the three infected individuals and they have been put in quarantine—which means they are staying home from work and having their vitals monitored to see if they show signs of sickness within the next 14 days. The individuals who have had confirmed cases are put into isolation, he said. 

On March 16, Gov. Jay Inslee issued a statement, announcing the statewide closure of restaurants, bars and events with gatherings of 50 people or more. 

“I know there will be significant economic impacts to all our communities. But every hour counts as we bend the curve of infection,” Inslee said. “We have and will continue to take steps to mitigate those challenges.”

On March 14, Inslee announced that all public and private schools will be closed for the next six weeks. 

While these measures may seem premature for Jefferson County—where there is no proof yet of community spread of the disease—Locke said the timing is just right. 

“The social distancing that we’re doing is having an effect, but it’s not enough,” he said. “We need to get more serious about slowing it down. The reason for that is medical surge.”

This is where the term “flattening the curve” comes into play. Health officials are trying to prolong the spread of the virus, so that the peak of the virus does not overwhelm medical services.

According to Locke, 80% of people infected will have mild or unapparent illness, which is one reason it can spread so fast. There are 20% of people who will be ill enough to be bed-ridden, and a smaller percentage are going to need hospital care. If all of those people get sick at once, it could overwhelm our local capacity to provide services.

“We have limited hospital and healthcare capacity to deal with that surge,” Locke said. “We have to slow down the spread so it matches up with the capacity of the medical care system to deal with the sickest of the sick. We don’t want to be in the situation that Northern Italy is.”

Locke said Jefferson County is more prepared to deal with the virus than King County was when it first appeared several weeks ago. Testing is occurring through Jefferson Healthcare’s COVID-19 hotline. Those who are experiencing signs of a respiratory illness, like coughing and shortness of breath, can call 360-344-3094 and a nurse will evaluate the symptoms and make an appointment for the individual to come to the hospital’s special clinic, where they will be tested. 

Locke said testing is more available than it has been in the past few weeks, but that it is still slow. 

“It has been very delayed,” he said. “It’s still not as available as it needs to be.”

The hospital has the ability to take nose swabs and send samples to the state’s lab and the University of Washington lab. Results come back to the county within 24 hours. 

But health professionals are also dealing with a shortness of supplies, like swabs and the viral transport liquid. The country as a whole is also dealing with a shortage of personal protective equipment, such as masks and gowns. 

“We don’t have an adequate supply,” Locke said. “We need to conserve what we have.” 

Locke said another problem the country as a whole faces is dysfunctional leadership at a national level. 

“We have one side of the partisan line that is anti-government, anti-science and wants to diminish the seriousness of this,” he said. 

But he said Jefferson County is taking guidance from the state government and the World Health Organization.

“We are extremely well organized in this county,” he said. “This is not a time for people to panic by any means. Epidemics like this are part of human history.”